Oct. 19, 2026

Researching Honesty: Can you trust the data? Part 1

Researching Honesty: Can you trust the data? Part 1
Researching Honesty: Can you trust the data? Part 1
Normal Curves
Researching Honesty: Can you trust the data? Part 1

A famous Harvard researcher. A blockbuster finding about honesty. Suspicious data, failed replications, and a $25 million lawsuit. Welcome to one of the strangest research misconduct scandals in recent memory. In the first of two episodes about the Francesca Gino case, we investigate a famous experiment claiming that signing an honesty pledge at the top of a form makes people less likely to cheat. We follow the trail from a failed replication to some extraordinary detective work involving an Excel spreadsheet—and conduct a little statistical sleuthing of our own. Along the way, we discover how suspicious changes to a handful of observations can alter the story a scientific study tells.

Statistical topics

  • Statistical sleuthing
  • Data integrity
  • Data management
  • Replication
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Effect sizes
  • Statistical significance
  • Reproducibility
  • Spreadsheets
  • Conceptual replication
  • Direct replication
  • CalcChain

Methodologic Morals

  • “There's cleaning your data, and then there's laundering your data.”
  • “Good data record keeping is still sexy. Version control, baby.”


References


References


Published research

  • Shu LL, Mazar N, Gino F, Ariely D, Bazerman MH. Signing at the beginning makes ethics salient and decreases dishonest self-reports in comparison to signing at the end. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012;109(38):15197-15200. Retracted. doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209746109
  • Kristal AS, Whillans AV, Bazerman MH, Gino F, Shu LL, Mazar N, Ariely D. Signing at the beginning versus at the end does not decrease dishonesty. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117(13):7103-7107. doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911695117
  • Retraction for Shu et al., Signing at the beginning makes ethics salient and decreases dishonest self-reports in comparison to signing at the end. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(38):e2115397118. doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115397118


Data Colada investigations

  • Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Evidence of fraud in an influential field experiment about dishonesty. Data Colada. August 17, 2021. https://datacolada.org/98
  • Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 1): “Clusterfake.” Data Colada. June 17, 2023. https://datacolada.org/109
  • Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 2): “My class year is Harvard.” Data Colada. June 20, 2023. https://datacolada.org/110
  • Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 3): “The cheaters are out of order.” Data Colada. June 23, 2023. https://datacolada.org/111
  • Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Data falsificada (part 4): “Forgetting the words.” Data Colada. June 30, 2023. https://datacolada.org/112
  • Simonsohn U, Simmons JP, Nelson LD. Exhibits 3, 4, and 5. Data Colada. September 16, 2023. https://datacolada.org/114
  • Simmons JP. Harvard's Gino report reveals how a dataset was altered. Data Colada. July 9, 2024. https://datacolada.org/118


Additional resources

Kristin and Regina’s online courses:

Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding

Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis

Medical Statistics Certificate Program

Writing in the Sciences

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program


Program that Kristin teaches in::

Epidemiology and Clinical Research Graduate Certificate Program


Kristin’s manuscript writing course:

https://instats.org/seminar/from-data-to-discussion-writing-a-scient

Find us on:

Kristin - LinkedIn & Twitter/X

Regina - LinkedIn & ReginaNuzzo.com

  • (00:00) - Cold Open: Two Frauds in a Paper About Honesty
  • (02:41) - The Claim: Spreadsheets Are the Villain
  • (05:43) - The 2012 Honesty Pledge Study
  • (09:17) - Signing at the Top Wins
  • (13:31) - Failed Replications: Five Conceptual Tries, Then...

00:00 - Cold Open: Two Frauds in a Paper About Honesty

02:41 - The Claim: Spreadsheets Are the Villain

05:43 - The 2012 Honesty Pledge Study

09:17 - Signing at the Top Wins

13:31 - Failed Replications: Five Conceptual Tries, Then a Direct One

17:39 - How Data Colada Got the Data and Found Car Insurance Fraud

24:52 - Out-of-Order Rows: The First Clue

29:48 - CalcChain: The Spreadsheet Remembers

33:24 - Reconstructing the Original Data

39:15 - Harvard's 1,300-Page Report

47:06 - Legal Twists: Tenure Revoked

50:03 - Rating the Claim

53:03 - Methodological Morals